Posted on Saturday 21st of April 2007 at 12:50 in Software

Why Vista failed - suicide by not fearing Linux enough

While some may say it's too early to claim that Vista failed but this week Microsoft largely admitted that Vista was a failure, so I think it's worth starting the post-mortem. The reason Vista failed was because it killed itself by not fearing Linux enough.

Throughout XP's lifespan Linux was never a viable threat because the price wasn't different. XP was possibly the most pirated application I can think of and it's not an unreasonable thing to say that it actually wasn't difficult to pirate. It was all too easy to give it a "special" serial number and leave the rest to fate. Even SP2 didn't make life difficult. Even the Windows Genuine Advantage (WGA) tool was bipassed easily enough - meaning anyone who didn't want to pay for Windows didn't have to.

Linux wasn't a threat because a more familiar system was available for the same price - free. Open source applications and pirated software tend to cost the same amount. Microsoft prospered like never before and maintained their astonishingly comprehensive grasp on the operating system market. Clearly this wasn't good enough and they made sure that their next product (Longhorn as Vista was known back then) was going to be INVINCIBLE!!

When you take your product and enforce a price on it (by making it nigh-impossible to hack) then you need to be VERY confident that the world will be happy buying it.

But Microsoft didn't. They developed Vista to be overly secure and *very* difficult to crack and that artificially welded the price firmly to the product. If you wanted Vista you had to pay for it. Sure there were cracks but they were complicated and often beyond "average" users.

Microsoft clearly did the maths of: XP statistics * Vista price = Massive profit. However there's a massive proportion of users who like to pirate software and are very unlikely to spend large sums of money on it.

So putting a sensible pricing structure on the product would be the best action... No?
If you're concerned about the uptake of your "unhackable" product then maybe you'd do best to price it competatively to ensure that more users try it. Because once you've got a generation happy paying for your product then the battle is largely won.

Nope. Microsoft landed a massive price-tag on the Operating System and artificially increased the price of the product by offering a basic package (Vista Home Basic) so basic that no-one would actually buy it.

So I see it that Vista commited suicide.
Microsoft didn't fear Linux enough. XP won over Linux because it was more familiar for the same price but they just assumed that Vista would carry over in the same way but they assumed wrong. Linux isn't the unusable mess they seem to think it is and what Microsoft have done is forced a lot of people to reconsider their options for operating systems - and that's the worst thing they could do. I think Microsoft wrote Linux off as a non-viable solution for the masses and therefore felt that their pricing structure would force buyers into paying.

I think not. While people haven't moved to Linux yet they sure as hell haven't been moving to Vista either - so unless Microsoft has a secret operating system that they were developing on the side then people are going to eventually move from XP to *somewhere*.

As each day passes I half expect Microsoft to jump out and shout "SURPRISE!! LOL!! Vista was just a joke, here's the REAL thing we spent the better part of a decade working on

That hasn't happened yet though and I don't expect it will. Shame really, because I find it hard to believe it took that long to re-skin XP using WindowBlinds.

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Comments

Showing most recent 10 of 10 comments

Not that i do not think some of the posts here are infact true, or spark up conversation of a general variety. BUT ...

But I will tell you what i see as the future, feel free to argue, I promise i will not ever fight back.

Vista will fail, it will be phased out near or around the time of XP. BYE to both ...

XP and Vista are both garbage. I can’t honestly state I have seen a great version of Win ever, maybe 3.11 or maybe 2000 - still neither great. SSH is out of realm for most, but that is stability, same as Dos was - A++. Its my opinion that Windows is the tape and paperclip version of digital construction. Dont believe me? Go get a copy of XP (the one all seem to love here) and install the 2002 ver, with SP2 fresh, tell me how many updates it takes to make it stabile - 100+ maybe, about right? Linux (most flavors) are very user friendly and highly cost effective - can you beat free, but like the Apple line have issues with client side software and driver avail. The best arguement is actually a question - what is the most pointless job on the planet for a techie - the answer is an AntiVirus Developer for Linux/Unix (including Mac). Doesn’t that alone say something about Windows, still the words are correct - just spend time with any true geek, not a weekend wannabe. Here is how you spot one 9 times out of 10, they are pale - regardless of skin color, and have typ. have a dark sense of humor, some think they are Gods (but not even close).

I am a developer and have over 15 years experience, I run a firm, and have produced high end applications even for the power companies. With my creds out of the way, i suggest the following.

Eventually (much sooner than later) you should look to the end of the PC based OS in general. Try to imagine a world where instead of paying for a product to be installed and run your day to day ops, or home surfing needs you simply had a small chip drive, like a memory card - and that acted as your key. The key that loaded your virtual PC - same features you are aware of now, only under monitor for stability by professionals. When i say professionals I am not implying the lowest bidder, or the slave labor of most non US countries. Yes to to all the nah sayers - their are hurdles, like how do i connect my printer, blah, blah - to those i would suggest just wait. In general I know this idea seems far fetched, but its really not that far off, the fact is a large sum of home users are out of their league just attempting to operate a computer. I say this because like it or not we are a society of easier, faster - just dont me learn types. Mass corporations are running, not walking to the above concept I just stated. Furthering my point i would suggest that most, not all users of home based PC’s spend 80%+ of their time surfing the web, and maybe writing a few memos/letters. They are sold a bill of goods when they buy the latest processor, the latest equipment, the latest software - all of which will likely never be used to its ability, or even understood past a 5% margin. All of which required by the M$ OS push, they really are the fat bastard of software development. So bloated.

Ok, heres the fun part - I will submit this little "whatever", maybe rant is a good word. And I will never check back again- still I know now that several people will come in and try to make it seem stupid, pick fights - all the things little people do. So here ya go I am horrible at sepllign, and I have a real foul mouth - caca poopo. See that’s fun.

In closing - I think we all need to wake up, your only bound because you allow yourself to be bound. Get educated, except the challenge, technology will not stop because you wont adapt, you just get passed by.

One last fun question set:
What if our power grids were run by M$? What if our traffic lights where run by M$? DOT is not - enough said. What if Bush was in office 4 more years - just kidding.

Bless all, and good luck.

Just Some Guy

Glorified Linux Distro?? Garbage. Mac OS X is a UNIX based system, not Linux and is well worthy of
glory and then some. Yes, Mac has it’s own little set of issues and if you are adventurous, as I, you
will find more but the issues of Mac, as compared to Windows is next to nothing.
As for Vista, I already spent my money on a computer from Apple.

zeusx64

Well if you look at w3schools stats, Vista has gained 1.9% market share in the past three months. If that rate of adoption continues, in two years, Vista will have around 15% market share. For comparison, XP use was close to 40% after 2 years. (see http://www.seopher.com/articles/operating_system_stats_vista_forecast)

This is really bad news for Microsoft as it means they’ll have to keep supporting an older operating system for a long time to come. That will complicate new product rollouts since things will have to be kept compatible with XP. Microsoft definately doesn’t want that. It’ll be interesting to see what they do. I expect they’ll offer deep discounts, and probably compromise on the driver-signing policy to get driver support. I wonder how much they will cede on the activation and "Genuine Advantage".

This comment has been edited by an administrator
> You should be ashamed

I did credit the original article in the original posting on the topic:
http://www.seopher.com/articles/microsoft_admit_vista_is_a_failure

That article relates directly to the one on the Enquirer, this one does not. This one discusses the topic more holistically while the other one was paraphrasing the original article more.

So please, read the original article before deciding to flame.

Seopher

Microsoft have been caught be the problem of every public company -- they have a duty to maintain shareholder value. But most of the value of Microsoft is that they are a monopoly... lose the monopoly position and they CAN still compete, but only by accepting a lower margin, lower returns and ultimately lower share price.

The stock market calls this a "correction" which is presumably on the basis that the only correct thing for share prices to do is go down, and thus it must be incorrect when share prices increase (there’s the logic of economists for you).

So the question is whether you admit the problem early, take your medicine, change direction and get on with life; or whether you hide the problem, find an exit strategy and pass it over to someone gullible who can take the loss in your proxy. If you look at MSFT shares, pre-2000 no one sold, trade volume was low and the price was on a steady rise, post-2000 the trade volume has been high and the price never achieved a steady rise ever again -- obviously the insiders have been steadily employing their exit strategy and their plan is to delay the inevitable as long as possible so the ultimate crash is more spectacular. That will be called a long overdue correction.

Tel

I forgot:

Not all Competition was destroyed by fomenting piracy of M$ products.

Remember Digital Research?!? The DR-DOS maker (a better DOS than MS-DOS).

Well, They build a very good Windows before Windows 1.0 (which was lousy).
It was called GEM... Then M$ (like every successful criminals) used the legal system to comit a LEGAL crime: it treatened Digital Resurch with a LEGAL-BATTLE that would bankrupt Digital Research IF they would not retreat GEM from the future Windows 1.0 out of the way. Which DR did... or it would die.

It may strange that the legal system be used to comit crimes like dead treaths to companies or simply get patents for simple things like the double-click (big invention according to M$ layers) ... but in some countries these crimes, with the help of the so-called justice system, are a way of life to many people... and very profitable too.

Remember Digital Research, GEM and DR-DOS !!! Use Free-OSs, be Free!

DuLac

The actions are very understandable:

1 - The users are sequestered to their OS.
2 - Software makers are also prisoners of it.
3 - Software makers that competed with M$ products to be have been destroyed by a politic of easing pirating of those M$ products (this gave huge profits payed by governments and enterprises as users got used to what they have pirated at home)
4 - Monopoly of the market was achieved (not by merit but by the above politics)
5 - M$ turned the weakness in profitable EXTRA products and MOTIVATION to avoid those weaknesses.

One day the ball will return... and it will be a bad karma!
Let’s FREE ourselves from beautiful trash. (This is a good mantra)
... as trash is always trash... and a time consuming one.
... Not profitable to the user

Do I want VISTA for $3 ?!? Nope! I rather use MENUET OS.
Do you?!?

If you’re going to plagiarize someone, at least credit the source where you got your article:

http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=39087

You Should Be Ashamed

Please correct the first sentence of your article. It doesn’t make sense.

Also, your other sentences, too.

Al Nonymous

I would agree with you very very strongly with your judgment of Vista! I have the pleasure? of working with it daily on my work development machine... It has achieved nothing other than making me far less productive.... It is a real pain to work with!

However although Linux distros would be a replacement option I don’t feel that there is enough GUI based software for them to make a big enough impact?

As a web developer I have recently moved to a mac.... and I can only say... the extra cost is more than worth it! You can not say (It just works!) enough.... And yes I realize OS X is just a glorified linux distro... But with the hardware and software support I believe that this will be the platform that picks up the slack as people look for alternatives to Vista

Ali

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Why Vista failed - suicide by not fearing Linux enough

When you take your product and enforce a price on it (by making it nigh-impossible to hack) then you need to be VERY confident that the world will be happy buying it.

As each day passes I half expect Microsoft to jump out and shout "SURPRISE!! LOL!! Vista was just a joke, here's the REAL thing we spent the better part of a decade working on