Posted on Sunday 14th of January 2007 at 11:50 in Apple

10 Reasons why the iPhone will succeed

I'm not a big Apple fan as far as previous products go but I've always been able to see their appeal and there's certainly something to be said for their marketing. They've been able to take a fairly standard product (such as an MP3 player) and make it more desirable than some better alternatives. Apple have always marketed their products well and there's always been (in recent years anyway) an undying demand for them - when was the last time you saw a Mac on TV? I bet it was recently seeing as programmes such as CSI have fairly obvious product placement from time to time. So when Apple officially announced the iPhone I decided it was going to be a winning product, and here's why:

Despite a knee-jerk reaction from the Anti-Apple types I think whatever level of FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) is generated the product will laugh off with epic sales. The iPod is a product owned by the majority of the 15-25 generations (or so my wanders in crowded public places seems to indicate) and I feel that the iPhone is only going to walk in the light provided by its fellow product.

1. Capacity is NOT an issue
It's been mentioned that the iPod became popular by being able to store all your music and that the iPhone will fall on this point (offering 4-8gb of storage) and I fail to see how this matters on the grounds the majority of iPod sales are generated by the smaller capacity models. The reason for the iPod's success will be the same as the iPhone's - because of key marketing methods, attractive design, seamless integration with iTunes and the benefit of being within a popular brand (as a result of the iPod incidently).

2. Interface?
There's a lot of discussion going around as to whether the interface will be able to succeed where others have failed - by making a complicated device easily usable. You see, what makes me believe that they will manage this is because Apple have always been excellent at UI (user interfaces). Look at Vista and then look at OSX. Look at Windows MCE and then look at FrontRow. Apple have been developing UI ideas that are later found in other applications on other platforms so it has only led me to think that they're more than capable of a good UI - probably the world leaders in fact.

3. Who would PAY for one? The answer: lots of people
Bill Ray over at The Register noted in his Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly article that Apple would be unable to sell the handset for an additional ?300 due to the pressure of competitive products. I cannot see any logic behind this statement beyond the notion of "Apple could shift more if they were offered for free" because personal media sales have shown products such as the 4gb Nano outsell the Ebuyer Value equivalent. Don't forget that branding is important and there are hundreds of thousands of people looking at the iPhone with lustful eyes. It's new, it's fashionable, it'll work (although for how long is another question altogether) and you know that even if you don't want the iPhone at launch, Apple will create model after model to cater for your every need. While I don't want one, I happily paid a few hundred pounds for my last handset because I wanted it and other people will do the same for this phone.

4. Basic consumer economics
This follows from #3. Billy* is 19 and he has a 4gb iPod Nano which he loves to pieces but is a year or two old now. Billy also has a Sony Ericsson walkman phone which has also seen better days but he finds his pockets rather bulged by the numerous devices he needs to carry around. His phone cost him ?100, his Nano cost him ?179 nearly 12 months ago meaning he has spent nearly ?300 on his mobile and personal audio needs within the past 12 months. If the iPhone is going to cost ?330 or so then I fail to see how the numbers don't add up... Two birds, one stone, another win for the device. _{*Billy is a fictional character}

5. Timing
There have been no major iPod developments for some time to offer any level of innovation to the market. The video iPod is aging and the desire for them has been waning for some time and I can't help but think that the timing for the iPhone is perfect. The market has needed a solid kick up the rear end for some time and a device as insane as this one should do the trick.

6. Why would people PAY for one?
Similar to #3 but taking a different angle. Who would buy one against lower priced alternatives? Look at the MacBook, the Mac Mini, the iMac... Cheap devices? No, they're not. Successful? Case and point. Apple don't do cheap products, they do expensive, high quality ones and everyone understands this. No one buys an Apple product because they were looking for the bare minimum in requirements and that's yet another reason why the iPhone won't be subjected to the normal woes of high prices consumer electronics.

7. Long term gains
As with the iPod we should be seeing new versions released incrementally. We should see a 2x increase in memory within the year and more accessories than you could shake a stick at. Prices should drop, quality and options should improve and both of these factors should result in a second wave of sales.

8. Proven track record
Steve Jobs has been doing this for a while and he doesn't seem to get things wrong terribly often. Look at the Mac, look at the iPod - two products that laid the path for the iPhone - release a powerful product, develop an astonishing mind share and then release more models to cater for the low and high end markets respectively. It's a tested model that seems to have a 100% success rate with a very proficient man at the helm.

9. Society loves convenience
I'm a big fan of PDA-phones that can do everything I ever wanted them to do and everyone I know who has attempted to live with one has loved the flexibility too and look at the market - phones are doing more and more and I think the iPhone is the next natural step for "mainstream" phones. True items like the Treo have been overly competent for a while but the iPhone is aimed at a different market (although not exclusively). It may offer features that non-techie users didn't know were available in the mobile phone market and maybe experience increased sales through a lack of education.

10. Linux users...
"Woah" I hear you say, this is NOT an option but I disagree. Linux ran on the iPod and I hope it runs on the iPhone too - imagine the possibilities... If this becomes a reality it could do amazing things for its reputation, mobile computing and the Linux mobile market. This could be a big event if someone gets it to work. Time will tell.

Conclusions
As I said originally, I'm not an Apple fan but I fail to see how the iPhone could fail given the support it has received already and the man (Steve Jobs) who is organising it all. Even if you hate the notion of the iPhone it could create a whole wave of positive movement in the mobile device market - other companies will want in on the action - more smart phones will be made and developed and have their own little price wars and this could result in very good things for the consumer. So chin up, whether you like the iPhone or not, it's success means good things for the market.

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